Demand Forecast

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Savon noir - BIOPROGREEN - 1kg - Lavande - Sans alcool - Sans colorant
SKU · AAAAF21034

Savon noir - BIOPROGREEN - 1kg - Lavande - Sans alcool - Sans colorant

longtail 3P CORPS ET VISAGE
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

4
▼ 69.2% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year

Current stock

183
≈ 116.4 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05

AAAAF21034

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 136 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Savon noir - BIOPROGREEN - 1kg - Lavande - Sans alcool - Sans colorant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -69.2% · on-hand 183 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (812 days of history, 176 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 1.51 — high (lumpy)
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 13 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.9 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks12.0 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months36.3 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week10.4 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)42.4 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)136.3 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.8
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 2.1K