Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAF21015
Ghassoul / Rhassoul Marocain en poudre 1 kg
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+300.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
974
≈ 397.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAF21015
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 262 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ghassoul / Rhassoul Marocain en poudre 1 kg · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 974 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (987 days of history, 335 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.45 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 44.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 63.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 261.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.1K |