Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAF21002
Acure Organics Gommage visage éclaircissant, tous types de peau 118 ml -Made In USA
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 46.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-31.8%
vs same 4w last year (22 units)
Current stock
248
≈ 22.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 136
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAF21002
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 286 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Acure Organics Gommage visage éclaircissant, tous types de peau 118 ml -Made In USA · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -46.4% · on-hand 248 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1022 days of history, 293 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.16 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 28 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 27.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 80.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 14.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 84.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 286.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 38.9K |