Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAE94607
Derma Roller System avec des aiguilles de titanium 0.5mm Premium
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-99.4%
vs same 4w last year (165 units)
Current stock
937
≈ 41.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAE94607
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 264 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller System avec des aiguilles de titanium 0.5mm Premium · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 937 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1036 days of history, 513 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.31 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 2 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 40.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 52.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 264.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.4K |