Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAE71149
Vitavin Erovin Ginseng 60 Comprimés
longtail
3P
COMPLEMENTS ALIMENTAIRES - THE INFUSION
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 58.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-28.6%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
43
≈ 68.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 130
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAE71149
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vitavin Erovin Ginseng 60 Comprimés · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -58.3% · on-hand 43 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (973 days of history, 53 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 18.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.6K |