Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAD84390
Pantene Crème Remplacement d'Huile Lisse et Soyeux - 275mL
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▲ 200.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
83
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
5
≈ 5.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAAAD84390
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 40 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pantene Crème Remplacement d'Huile Lisse et Soyeux - 275mL · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending up +200.0% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1148 days of history, 51 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 7.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 39.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.0K |