Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAD84388
Crème Remplacement d'Huile - PANTENE - Soin au lait - 275ml - Nourrit et protège - Répare les cheveux abîmés
longtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 78.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-33.3%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
20
≈ 14.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAD84388
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Remplacement d'Huile - PANTENE - Soin au lait - 275ml - Nourrit et protège - Répare les cheveux abîmés · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -78.9% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1043 days of history, 139 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 30.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 79.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |