Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAD84384
Brosse à dents électrique - Oral-B - Cross Action - 2 unités - Inclinaison 16° - Élimine 100% plaque
longtail
3P
SANTE - HYGIENE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
6
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
43
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 89
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAAD84384
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 73 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Brosse à dents électrique - Oral-B - Cross Action - 2 unités - Inclinaison 16° - Élimine 100% plaque · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1078 days of history, 111 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.57 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 40.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 73.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.5K |