Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAC49462
Kin Caspiselen shampoing anti-pelliculaire 200 ML
midtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 11.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-70.4%
vs same 4w last year (27 units)
Current stock
79
≈ 25.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 83
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAAAC49462
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kin Caspiselen shampoing anti-pelliculaire 200 ML · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -11.1% · on-hand 79 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1015 days of history, 166 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 35.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.8K |