Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAC34673
Sac à dos - Lenovo B210 - ECO -- 16 pouces - Polyester - Noir
hero
1P
MAROQUINERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 65.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+0.0%
vs same 4w last year (12 units)
Current stock
30
≈ 2.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 165
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAC34673
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 294 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sac à dos - Lenovo B210 - ECO -- 16 pouces - Polyester - Noir · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -65.7% · on-hand 30 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1064 days of history, 1,031 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.68 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 35 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 11.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 44.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 110.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 20.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 94.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 293.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 48.5K |