Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA82921
ORALEX CHARBON DENTIFRICE BLANCHEUR + BROSSE A DENT
longtail
1P
DENTAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▲ 7.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-22.2%
vs same 4w last year (18 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
AAAAA82921
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 124 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ORALEX CHARBON DENTIFRICE BLANCHEUR + BROSSE A DENT · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending up +7.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (882 days of history, 185 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 14.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 38.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 123.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |