Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA82879
Eau de parfum Happy collection n°57 pour homme 100ml - CARAVAN FRAGANCIAS
longtail
3P
PARFUM
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 600.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
8
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 129
avg of last 18 sells · latest 2026-10-04
AAAAA82879
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 45 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Eau de parfum Happy collection n°57 pour homme 100ml - CARAVAN FRAGANCIAS · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +600.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (784 days of history, 18 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.03 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 44.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.8K |