Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA81544
SADOER Bamboo Charcoal Black Mask enlever les points noirs - 6g
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-98.0%
vs same 4w last year (246 units)
Current stock
27
≈ 1.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAA81544
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 216 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SADOER Bamboo Charcoal Black Mask enlever les points noirs - 6g · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 27 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1064 days of history, 854 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.99 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 47.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 52.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 215.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |