Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA81544
SADOER Bamboo Charcoal Black Mask enlever les points noirs - 6g
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 88.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAA81544
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 313 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SADOER Bamboo Charcoal Black Mask enlever les points noirs - 6g · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -88.9% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1120 days of history, 454 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 3 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 20.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 113.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 47.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 312.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.8K |