Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA81544
SADOER Bamboo Charcoal Black Mask enlever les points noirs - 6g
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
3
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-20
AAAAA81544
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 163 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SADOER Bamboo Charcoal Black Mask enlever les points noirs - 6g · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1169 days of history, 233 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 66.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 163.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |