Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA80101
Vaseline Lip Therapy Original
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▲ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 28
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAA80101
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 46 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vaseline Lip Therapy Original · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending up +50.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1050 days of history, 25 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 11.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 45.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |