Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA78943
Gel douche - LE PETIT MARSEILLAIS - Fleur d'oranger - 650ml - Hydratant - Doux
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▲ 600.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+100.0%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
15
≈ 8.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
AAAAA78943
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 126 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel douche - LE PETIT MARSEILLAIS - Fleur d'oranger - 650ml - Hydratant - Doux · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending up +600.0% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (784 days of history, 111 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.03 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 25.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 125.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.9K |