Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA78929
Savon noir à la rose 200g - ARGAPUR
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
17
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
17
≈ 56.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 23 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAA78929
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 57 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon noir à la rose 200g - ARGAPUR · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 17 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (735 days of history, 10 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |