Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA78918
Fil Dentaire Oralex – Ciré & Fraîcheur Menthol 30 m
longtail
1P + 3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 53.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
23
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
7
≈ 3.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAA78918
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Fil Dentaire Oralex – Ciré & Fraîcheur Menthol 30 m · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -53.3% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1029 days of history, 160 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 38.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 74.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |