Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA75564
CHRISTELLE PARIS Serum Vitamine C anti Rides - Femme & Homme - 30ml MULTICOLORE
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
17
▼ 56.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-65.3%
vs same 4w last year (49 units)
Current stock
15
≈ 2.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 36
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAA75564
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 363 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CHRISTELLE PARIS Serum Vitamine C anti Rides - Femme & Homme - 30ml MULTICOLORE · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 17 units, trending down -56.4% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1085 days of history, 592 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 17 units · prev 4w = 39 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 8.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 38.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 100.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 22.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 109.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 363.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.0K |