Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA73220
Urgo - Compresse Stérile - 30 x 30 Cm - Boîte de 10
longtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▲ 200.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
5,415
≈ 4476.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAA73220
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 152 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Urgo - Compresse Stérile - 30 x 30 Cm - Boîte de 10 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending up +200.0% · on-hand 5415 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (994 days of history, 108 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 32.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 151.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |