Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA73187
URGO COMPRESSES STÉRILES DE GAZE 20cmX20cm
longtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 83.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+10.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
1,939
≈ 1813.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAA73187
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 83 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
URGO COMPRESSES STÉRILES DE GAZE 20cmX20cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +83.3% · on-hand 1939 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1001 days of history, 114 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.26 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 22.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 83.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 814 |