Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA73184
GILBERT PHY SERUM PHYSIOLOGIQUE 40+5x5ML
longtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-40.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
737
≈ 481.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 58
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAA73184
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
GILBERT PHY SERUM PHYSIOLOGIQUE 40+5x5ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 737 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1064 days of history, 107 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.15 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 20.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 68.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.0K |