Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA70000
Cetaphil - Lotion Nettoyante - 236 ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1,270
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 101
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAA70000
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 59 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cetaphil - Lotion Nettoyante - 236 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 1288 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1050 days of history, 112 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 26.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 59.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.0K |