Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA69986
Crème Biretix Isorepair - Biretix - 50ml - Hydratation - Non gras - Répare la peau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-50.0%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
507
≈ 688.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 151
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAA69986
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 57 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Biretix Isorepair - Biretix - 50ml - Hydratation - Non gras - Répare la peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 507 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (896 days of history, 57 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.54 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 18.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.6K |