Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA69578
DISAAR Shampooing Colorant Noir au Collagène et à l'huile d'Argan 400 ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-62.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
146
≈ 89.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 34
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAA69578
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 73 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
DISAAR Shampooing Colorant Noir au Collagène et à l'huile d'Argan 400 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 146 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1113 days of history, 101 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 73.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |