Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA69524
Cetaphil Crème Hydratante 453G
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
67
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 192
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
AAAAA69524
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 103 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cetaphil Crème Hydratante 453G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 115 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1169 days of history, 142 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 34.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 102.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.7K |