Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA68677
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men Dry Impact, 50ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 87.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
108
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 14.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 29
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-19
AAAAA68677
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 57 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men Dry Impact, 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -87.5% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (994 days of history, 12 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |