Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA68676
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men Cool Kick, 50ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
163
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
11
≈ 19.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 28
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-01
AAAAA68676
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 62 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men Cool Kick, 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (952 days of history, 38 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.78 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 61.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |