Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA68676
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men Cool Kick, 50ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
13
≈ 23.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAA68676
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 58 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men Cool Kick, 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (931 days of history, 38 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.77 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 14.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 58.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |