Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA68675
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men B&W Invisible Original, 50ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
72
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
10
≈ 16.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-03
AAAAA68675
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 33 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men B&W Invisible Original, 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1043 days of history, 21 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 9.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 32.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 982 |