Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA68675
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men B&W Invisible Original, 50ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
169
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
10
≈ 16.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAA68675
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 63 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA MEN, Stick for Men B&W Invisible Original, 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (980 days of history, 19 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 26.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 63.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |