Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA53834
Psyllium Blond Probiotic ( Ispaghol ) 500G - Solutions Problèmes Intestins
longtail
3P
SAUCES ET CONDIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 77.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-50.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
989
≈ 937.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 124
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAAAA53834
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Psyllium Blond Probiotic ( Ispaghol ) 500G - Solutions Problèmes Intestins · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -77.8% · on-hand 989 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1141 days of history, 88 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 20.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.6K |