Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA50123
Déodorant Gel - SECRET - Lavande - 48 heures - Sans alcool - 73g
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
44
▲ 388.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
42
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
1
≈ 1.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 39
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAAAA50123
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 121 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant Gel - SECRET - Lavande - 48 heures - Sans alcool - 73g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 44 units, trending up +388.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1169 days of history, 109 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.40 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 44 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 51.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 121.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |