Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA40864
Ultra Doux Hair Food - Masque nourissant au beurre de cacao pour cheveux bouclés - 390ml
midtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 27.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
396
Σ Stock across 7 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
187
≈ 33.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 65
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAAA40864
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 186 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ultra Doux Hair Food - Masque nourissant au beurre de cacao pour cheveux bouclés - 390ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -27.3% · on-hand 187 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1274 days of history, 188 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 47.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 54.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 185.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 10.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.0K |