Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA40858
Elseve - Hyaluron Plump - Shampooing à l'acide hyaluronique pour cheveux deshydratés et en manque de vitalité - 200ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
114
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
9
≈ 8.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAAAA40858
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 43 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Elseve - Hyaluron Plump - Shampooing à l'acide hyaluronique pour cheveux deshydratés et en manque de vitalité - 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1246 days of history, 16 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 8 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 2.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 42.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 869 |