Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA40858
Elseve - Hyaluron Plump - Shampooing à l'acide hyaluronique pour cheveux deshydratés et en manque de vitalité - 200ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
286
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
10
≈ 8.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-20
AAAAA40858
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 56 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Elseve - Hyaluron Plump - Shampooing à l'acide hyaluronique pour cheveux deshydratés et en manque de vitalité - 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1183 days of history, 36 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 6 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.1K |