Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA38345
Ampoule LED 6W E14 3000K – Lumière jaune INGELEC
longtail
1P + 3P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
362
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
14
≈ 19.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 20 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAA38345
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 177 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ampoule LED 6W E14 3000K – Lumière jaune INGELEC · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 14 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (833 days of history, 21 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.07 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 61.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 39.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 176.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |