Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA38289
Aérosol contre les insectes rampants 450ml - BAYGON
longtail
1P
INSECTICIDE - RATICIDE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
160
Σ Stock across 4 live offers
1P stock
7
≈ 44.7 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 34
avg of last 8 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAAAA38289
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Aérosol contre les insectes rampants 450ml - BAYGON · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (777 days of history, 8 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.53 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |