Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA31849
JUST Oil Control SkincareRoutine 3*30ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 38.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
111
≈ 22.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 159
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAA31849
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 230 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
JUST Oil Control SkincareRoutine 3*30ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -38.5% · on-hand 111 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1099 days of history, 175 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.11 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 17.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 56.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 60.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 229.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 36.6K |