Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA31849
JUST Oil Control SkincareRoutine 3*30ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 160
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAAA31849
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
JUST Oil Control SkincareRoutine 3*30ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1218 days of history, 140 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.20 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 119.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.0K |