Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA31838
JUST Azelaic Acid Suspension 10% 30ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
30
▼ 46.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
174
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 67
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAA31838
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 205 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
JUST Azelaic Acid Suspension 10% 30ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, trending down -46.4% · on-hand 240 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1148 days of history, 391 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 56 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 11.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 39.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 118.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 204.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.8K |