Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA31836
JUST DAILY SUN SHIELD UVA+UVB FILTERS SPF50+ WITH HYALURONIC ACID, 30 ml
midtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 27.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+100.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
47
≈ 15.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 65
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAA31836
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 133 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
JUST DAILY SUN SHIELD UVA+UVB FILTERS SPF50+ WITH HYALURONIC ACID, 30 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -27.3% · on-hand 47 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1176 days of history, 98 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 38.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 40.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 132.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.6K |