Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA23844
L'Oréal Paris Hyaluron Expert crème contour des yeux à l'acide hyaluronique 15 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
32
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
3
≈ 1.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 83
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-16
AAAAA23844
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 40 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Paris Hyaluron Expert crème contour des yeux à l'acide hyaluronique 15 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1225 days of history, 16 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 2.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 40.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.4K |