Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA23835
L'Oréal Elsève - Huile Extraordinaire - Après shampooing 200 ML
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
134
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 35
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-22
AAAAA23835
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 125 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Elsève - Huile Extraordinaire - Après shampooing 200 ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1120 days of history, 68 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.95 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 29.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 125.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.4K |