Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA23035
Gel coiffant - Nivea - Styling Cream - 150ml - Sans alcool - Brillance - Fixation souple
longtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-27.3%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 55
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAA23035
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel coiffant - Nivea - Styling Cream - 150ml - Sans alcool - Brillance - Fixation souple · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1008 days of history, 94 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 28.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 79.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.3K |