Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA23022
Pantene Shampoing Milky Damage Repair 400ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 91.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
Σ Stock across 5 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAA23022
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 77 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pantene Shampoing Milky Damage Repair 400ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -91.2% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1064 days of history, 48 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.41 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 77.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.1K |