Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22937
NIVEA, Déodorant Femme, Double Effect, Spray 200ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
23
▲ 27.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+666.7%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
1
≈ 0.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAA22937
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA, Déodorant Femme, Double Effect, Spray 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 23 units, trending up +27.8% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1099 days of history, 82 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 23 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 24.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 68.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |