Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22222
Lingettes humides Pampers pour bébé à l'aloe vera - 64 lingettes
longtail
1P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
4
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
4
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAAAA22222
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lingettes humides Pampers pour bébé à l'aloe vera - 64 lingettes · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1274 days of history, 121 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 43.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |