Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22187
Pampers Premium Care Nouveau-né Couches Bébé Taille 1 (2-5kg) - 60 unités
longtail
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 55.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
72
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
24
≈ 17.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 94
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAAA22187
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 123 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pampers Premium Care Nouveau-né Couches Bébé Taille 1 (2-5kg) - 60 unités · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -55.0% · on-hand 24 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1274 days of history, 112 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 44.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 39.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 122.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.5K |