Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA22139
L'Oréal Elsève - Oil Replacement Huile Extra 300 ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
51
≈ 18.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 47
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAA22139
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 109 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Elsève - Oil Replacement Huile Extra 300 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (980 days of history, 40 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 109.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.2K |