Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA22139
L'Oréal Elsève - Oil Replacement Huile Extra 300 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▲ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
64
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
13
≈ 4.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAAAA22139
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 135 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Elsève - Oil Replacement Huile Extra 300 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending up +20.0% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1043 days of history, 40 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.26 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 59.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 135.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.7K |