Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22139
L'Oréal Elsève - Oil Replacement Huile Extra 300 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
39
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
8
≈ 3.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 41
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-13
AAAAA22139
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 60 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Elsève - Oil Replacement Huile Extra 300 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1085 days of history, 35 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.27 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 7.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |