Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22125
NIVEA MEN, Déodorant Homme, Fresh Ocean, Roll-on 50ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 250.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+40.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
11
≈ 7.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAAAA22125
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 64 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA MEN, Déodorant Homme, Fresh Ocean, Roll-on 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +250.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1127 days of history, 77 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 20.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 63.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |