Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22117
Soin sans rinçage - GARNIER - Ultra Doux - Lait d'Amande - 200ml - Tous types de cheveux
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 300.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
43
≈ 41.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 41
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAA22117
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Soin sans rinçage - GARNIER - Ultra Doux - Lait d'Amande - 200ml - Tous types de cheveux · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +300.0% · on-hand 43 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1092 days of history, 64 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 18.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |