Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22110
Elsève Dream Long Straight - Oil Replacement pour cheveux longs anti frisottis 300ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
75
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
11
≈ 7.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AAAAA22110
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Elsève Dream Long Straight - Oil Replacement pour cheveux longs anti frisottis 300ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -14.3% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1218 days of history, 83 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 34.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 67.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |