Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22092
Gel douche - NIVEA MEN - Vitality Fresh - 250ml - Parfum frais - Formule douce
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 300.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
78
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 12 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAA22092
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel douche - NIVEA MEN - Vitality Fresh - 250ml - Parfum frais - Formule douce · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +300.0% · on-hand 78 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (875 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.56 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 21.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |