Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22069
NIVEA MEN, Gel douche, Pure Impact, 250ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
-33.3%
vs same 4w last year (9 units)
Current stock
64
≈ 35.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAA22069
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 124 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA MEN, Gel douche, Pure Impact, 250ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 64 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1190 days of history, 99 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 31.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 124.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.8K |